“Man is diminished if he lives without knowledge of his past; without hope of a future he becomes a beast.”
― P.D. James, The Children of Men
The book and movie “Children of Men” takes place in 2027, where two decades of human infertility have left society on the brink of collapse and the UK run by a tyrannical oligarchy. This story is an interesting possible glimpse of a possible future world in population decline. This science-fiction dystopian society could be a possible glimpse into the distant future, with its repressive governments and collapsing civilization.
There isn’t an actual global science-fiction biological condition in the real world suppressing fertility. The real Population Decline to come is almost unprecedented in that it is not a plague, war, or natural disaster reducing the population. There will begin to be global population decline after peak growth in the 2050’s.
There are cultural and economic factors will continue to suppress fertility in the post-industrial first world nations. The growing numbers growing numbers of unmarriageable men in advanced societies (i.e. Japan’s Herbivore Men), declining male economic status, decrease in marriage, and hostile feminist social policies will all contribute to keeping the fertility rate suppressed and low.
I often have read the sweeping generalization in media articles the next generation of always has an inflated sense of “entitlement”. In the story of “Children of Men”; the youngest people were called “Omegas”. They not only had a sense of entitlement were downright dangerous at times:
The youngest generation, the “Omegas”, are described as spoiled, over-entitled and egotistical due to their youth and the luxurious lifestyle they are treated to. They are violent, remote and unstable, and regard non-Omegas (elders) with undisguised contempt, yet are spared punishment due to their age.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Children_of_Men
In western culture the adulation of “Youth” is a near religion that is worshipped like the pagan goddess Venus of the Roman Empire. Culture, fashion, style, and marketing are all youth centered; notably towards young females. I can only imagine how much worse the vanity will get when smaller numbers of young people stand out more in a greying and ageing populace.
I could definitely see western governments become oppressive and clinging to power in a world of population decline like in the story of “Children of Men”. One of the major points in the story was the UK totalitarian state was zealous about controlling immigration. They would exploit “Omega” immigrants but once they outlive their usefulness they would exile them. The concern would be in a graying world the burdens of immigrants on the state welfare/retirement system. In the book “Children of Men”, the state removed all burdens of the retirement system by practicing euthanasia at age 60 by mass drowning. What lengths will graying western nations resort to in 100 years to cling to their standard of living?
Hanna Rosin is correct about the current issues affecting men in her book the “End of Men“; but what she gets wrong is her notion of a future outcome; that there will be a continuing “Rise of Women”. She is not factoring worldwide population decline and the “End of Western Civilization” as we know it. Rosin is working under the flawed premise that our prosperous “postindustrial economy” will continue along the same course; it clearly will not in a debt-ridden and aged populace. The very thing that keeps civilizations cohesive are large numbers of productive men who are engaged in society; for most of history that meant providing for a wife and children. Once you take the cohesion away everything crumbles.
In the movie “Children of Men” it was quite striking in the how society was simply collapsing; it was with great effort the oppressive government of the UK is held onto power. The people largely don’t care about anything as there is no future or hope. It is an uncomfortable thought for people that live in prosperity that the clock can easily be turned back on the modern civilized world.
In the book they describe how the UK populace is required by law to learn husbandry an(cultivation of animals and crops) so they can feed themselves once they are the last people on the planet. How many people in Western Civilization are capable of feeding of themselves? The keys to maintaining our civilization are food trucks delivering low-cost food to the grocery stores and access to low-cost energy. If those things go away so does our civilization. and people will revert to a more survivalist, opportunistic, and even predatory psychology you saw in earlier times.
The looting of stores happened almost immediately in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. The media reported violence was exaggerated but there were incidences; had the lack of power and food persisted for a longer period the city would have devolved into anarchy. The fine line between civilization and savagery was about 3 days of food. It would take a repressive regime like ran the UK in “Children of Men” to keep some semblance of order.
I could see western democracies turning into corporate bankrolled puppets desperately clinging to power over violent slums. The constant violence was a major theme in “Children of Men”. There are plenty of violent cities for sure in my country; Detroit being a prime example.
Police said at least nine driveway robberies have been reported within the past few months.
“We’ve got to do something different,” Craig said. “When I think of eight home invasions in the last 30 days … This is not a quality of life that you want in an engaged community.
The central plot of “Children of Men” was the protagonist Theo was helping a woman named Julian,the first pregnant woman in decades. There were several factions fighting to control her in the story. Certainly in a world of population decline youth and labor become the most valuable commodities. Every other country except the UK fell apart in the story “Children of Men”. I don’t see that happening, but many European nations have low fertility and high percentages of Muslim Immigrants hostile to their beliefs.
infowarrior1 brought a Guardian article to my attention in a previous post. Anne Chemin somehow makes the absurd leap that gender equality magically solves the fertility rate.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/21/france-population-europe-fertility-rate
The fertility rate is high in European countries where family norms are flexible, women feel free to work, pro-child policies are generous and childcare is well organised – in short, in countries that have come to terms with gender equality.
This article is very intellectually dishonest and make ‘Grand Canyon’ sized leaps to conclusions without evidence. Pro-child care policies are useful in in societies that foolishly have structured their economy where two parents need to work to maintain an household, but that does not mean ‘Gender equality’ boosts fertility. Short of societal revolution where a nation subsides women to stay home and birth many babies or some radical economic innovation, nothing any government does is going to make a difference.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/02/17/population-decline-and-the-great-economic-reversal
The process is essentially irreversible. It is primarily a matter of urbanization. In agricultural and low-level industrial societies, children are a productive asset. Children can be put to work at the age of 6 doing agricultural work or simple workshop labor. Children become a source of income, and the more you have the better. Just as important, since there is no retirement plan other than family in such societies, a large family can more easily support parents in old age
Chemin assumes that France and Scandinavian nations have “high fertility” in the first place. They do not. I will point to my country’s world fact book published by the CIA.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2127.html
Sweden the paragon of gender equality in at 1.88 fertility rate; which is below replacement. If you remove the Muslim immigrants their fertility is no different than the rest of Europe. I didn’t see the words “Muslim Immigrants” anywhere in Anne Chemin’s article. If I had to wager the outcome between “Feminist Scandinavians” and Muslims Immigrants; my money would go on the Muslims to easily cover the spread. Anne Chemin would be a complete fool to think Scandinavian extinction is something other countries possibly want to emulate.
France is 2.08; which is simply at replacement which is the same as the United States. Chemin hails ‘mediocrity’ as some innovative achievement the UK should copy. If you remove the fertility rates of Muslim immigrants; France would fall below replacement likely in the 1.90 – 1.99 range. The United Kingdom is at 1.9, there isn’t possibly much they could learn from France. The Guardian is trying to falsely peddle feminist ideology as a solution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maghrebis_in_France
Maghrebis (mainly Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia) make up the largest non-European ethnic group in France. Estimates range between 4 million and 6 million people depending on the number of generations of immigrant descendants included in the estimations, with part or full Maghrebi ancestry in France forming about 6-9% of France’s total population.
You can’t fault the immigrants either; not when Western Civilization is carving and stuffing itself like a game bird on a golden platter. The entry goes on to state:
According the Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), 16% of newborns in France (about 130,000 newborns per year) between 2006 and 2008 have at least one grandparent.
France is in the same boat as the United States; in several decades as immigration dwindles they will fall below replacement with an increased portion of their populace non-native. In France’s case; they will have a Muslim minority hostile to Anne Chemin’s very notions of “gender equality”. France won’t have a Charles “The Hammer” Martel to save them this time.
The story of “Children of Men” is finding hope in a gloomy and hopeless world. Our hope is solely in our children because no current government, economic policy, or social justice advocacy is going to stop global population decline.
“It has been said that civilization is twenty-four hours and two meals away from barbarism.”
― Neil Gaiman, Good Omens: The Nice and Accurate Prophecies of Agnes Nutter, Witch
